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Three statistics form the core of our coverage: sales of existing homes (and the prices those sales fetch); sales of new homes; and housing starts, which reflect new construction that is counted in GDP. Because housing is a diversified and highly regional industry, our reporting and forecasting are informed by other research as well as conversations with industry experts as well. Read our current forecast Retail Consumers are the engine of our economy, and when their spending flags, business feels it. We examine trends that are influencing their habits, such as falling gas prices, to forecast what they'll be buying in the future and how much they'll be willing to shell out both on everyday items and on big-ticket purchases such as cars and trucks. Read our current forecast Trade All nations of consequence trade with others. Those that buy more from other countries than they sell in turn have a trade deficit, and that's been the story for the United States since the mid-1970s. How big that deficit will be, and whether the changes will result from more (or fewer) imports or more (or fewer) exports, is the crux of our forecasting. We look at specific sectors (such as agriculture) where the United States is doing well selling abroad, as well as what items (such as smartphones) we buy from overseas.

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